A análise, para mim, é clara: o consumidor "normal" está percebendo que deve procurar custo benefício.
Sim. É o que chamam, em economia, de "bem substituto inferior": aquele cuja demanda aumenta em desfavor de um produto mais caro de funcionalidade parecida (ex: na crise, cai a demanda por carne e aumenta a demanda por frango -
http://g1.globo.com/sao-paulo/sorocaba-jundiai/nosso-campo/noticia/2016/03/demanda-por-carne-mais-barata-aquece-mercado-do-frango.html)
O Jean-Claude Biver diz que é a "crise mundial" (Dilma/Mantega feelings):
“The industry is not in trouble, the world is in trouble,” he says, thumping his fist on the table (which is made of pine and heat-stamped with a line drawing of a Hublot watch and what might be edelweiss). ‘And that’s very different. Syria is in trouble; the refugees are in trouble; Putin is in trouble; Ukraine is in trouble; Brexit is in trouble; Europe is in trouble; Al-Qaeda and Islamic State are in trouble; Paris is in trouble; currency is in trouble; the finance market is in trouble; the stock market is in trouble… Goddamn, the whole world is in trouble! And we? We should sell watches like crazy?”
Essa mesma matéria, mais à frente, diz que Hong Kong é "para onde muitos chineses viajam para comprar seus relógios".
Pesquisei um pouco sobre a situação atual do consumo de luxo em Hong Kong e esse artigo do Financial Times traz algo que corrobora a análise do Flávio:
Hong Kong Losing Status as China's Great Mall
Anti-corruption clampdown, testy relationship with Beijing and changing consumer habits hurt sales
(...)
“There’s a real debate as to whether what we call traditional luxury — handbags or watches — will come back to the same extent that we saw before because there’s been a huge behavioural shift,” she says. “We still see the Chinese travelling extensively, but spending on goods has moderated and spending on hotels, restaurants and entertainment has gone up.”
Achei interessante a matéria citar também a "campanha anticorrupção" na China. Aparentemente a turma recebia a propina e corria a Hong Kong convertê-la em artigos de luxo.
Aqui um outro artigo (longo) sobre como este aperto contra a corrupção na China afetou a economia como um todo, porque a burocracia estatal de aprovações praticamente emperrou e ninguém consegue mais tirar projetos do papel. Ele também cita de raspão a questão dos artigos de luxo dados como "presentes" a autoridades:
“There is an estimate that some 20 percent of spending on luxury goods was for gifts, and as soon as the campaign started there was an immediate impact and an obvious decrease in sales,” said Yann Jaussaud, Shanghai-based general manager of French communication agency Mazarine Asia Pacific, which advises clients in the luxury sector.China’s proportion of the world luxury market reportedly contracted from 11 percent in 2013 to 10 percent in 2014, while sales of luxury goods inside the country fell 11 percent over the same year, according to one survey.More than 80 percent of fashion brands have closed stores in China, with more closing predicted. Sales of expensive watches, once popular with officials but now often held up as a symbol of corruption, have been hard hit, too. Even prices of some of China’s most prized teas, once a popular gift for officials, have fallen significantly in recent years.
Aparentemente ostentar relógio caro virou sinal de corrupção na China, em alguma medida. Chola mais, Biver